Recent reports of increased volcanic activity at Italy’s Campi Flegrei and the long-watched Yellowstone supervolcano have raised concerns about the potential global consequences of a large-scale eruption. While these events remain highly unlikely in the near term, they are not impossible — and the impacts could ripple far beyond the blast zones. For Vermont, the threats would be indirect but significant, particularly in the realms of agriculture, energy, and climate.
Distant Eruptions, Local Consequences
Campi Flegrei, located in southern Italy near Naples, has shown persistent signs of uplift and seismic movement — indicators of pressure building beneath the surface. Though scientists are cautious to avoid alarmism, this volcanic caldera has a history of large eruptions, the last of which occurred nearly 500 years ago. If it were to erupt at a magnitude similar to its largest historical events, it could throw enough ash and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere to affect global temperatures for several years.
Yellowstone, while much farther from Vermont, poses a greater potential threat due to the scale of its past eruptions. A supereruption — classified as a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 8 event — would dwarf any modern volcanic disaster in recorded history. Though the odds of such an event occurring in our lifetime are extremely low, the consequences would be far-reaching.
Vermont’s Exposure to a Volcanic Winter
Neither event would bring lava or pyroclastic flows to New England. However, the atmospheric consequences of a large eruption could reduce global temperatures by several degrees Fahrenheit. In the case of a VEI 7 or 8 eruption, this could lead to what scientists refer to as a “volcanic winter,” potentially triggering conditions akin to a short-term mini ice age.
This happened in 1816 following the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia. In what became known as the “Year Without a Summer,” much of New England, including Vermont, saw snow in June, frosts in July and August, and widespread crop failures. Food shortages, price spikes, and mass migrations followed.
In a similar scenario today, Vermont’s short growing season could be severely shortened or lost entirely, especially if hard frosts persist through late spring or arrive early in the fall. Hay and forage production for livestock could plummet. Home gardens and small farms might struggle without the support of greenhouses or grow tunnels. A strong local food economy would help cushion the blow, but not eliminate it.
Solar Energy: A Hidden Vulnerability
One lesser-known impact of a supervolcano eruption would be the disruption to solar power generation, which Vermont has increasingly embraced as a renewable energy source.
A large eruption would send millions of tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, forming reflective sulfate aerosols that diminish the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. This effect could persist for 1–3 years, depending on the scale of the eruption. Some models suggest solar insolation could drop by 20–30% or more globally during the first year.
In Vermont, this could reduce solar panel output by 40–60%, especially during the winter months when daylight is already scarce. Off-grid homesteads and backup solar systems could struggle to keep batteries charged. Even grid-tied systems would see reduced efficiency, and power companies might have to rely more heavily on fossil fuel backups or imports.
Ashfall, though lighter in the Northeast than in the western U.S., could still contribute to operational problems. Even a few millimeters of fine volcanic ash can scratch solar panel surfaces, block light, and cause mechanical wear when cleaned improperly. Regular cleaning would be necessary, but water for cleaning might be in limited supply, and filtration systems could be compromised.
Resilience in a Rural State
Despite these challenges, Vermont may be better prepared than many regions to weather such a disruption. The state’s rural nature, reliance on wood heat, and strong traditions of food preservation and local agriculture offer a foundation for resilience. However, this advantage only holds if communities are aware of the risks and take steps in advance.
In the event of a supervolcano eruption, global supply chains — especially for food and energy — could be severely strained. Even those not directly affected by ashfall or immediate temperature drops may face rationing, scarcity, and economic instability. As with any low-probability but high-impact event, the time to plan is before the disruption begins.
Maintaining redundant energy systems, preserving animal feed and seed stores, and strengthening local food networks are all practical steps that can help Vermont households and communities prepare for the kinds of disruptions a distant volcano might cause.
While there is no immediate cause for alarm, the message is clear: a supervolcanic eruption may not send lava through the Green Mountains, but it could cast a shadow over them all the same.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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