Vermont’s child care system now has more licensed capacity than it did before the pandemic—but fewer providers delivering it, just as lawmakers move to impose a new professional licensing system on early childhood educators.
State data tracking trends from fiscal years 2020 through 2025 show a system that contracted for several years before rebounding. That recovery restored the number of available child care slots statewide, but not the number of programs, pointing to a shift toward fewer, larger providers.
At the same time, the Legislature has advanced S.206, a bill that would require early childhood educators working in regulated programs to be licensed through the Office of Professional Regulation, establishing a new oversight board, tiered licensing system, and ongoing regulatory framework.
Decline Reached a Low Point in 2023
From 2020 through 2023, Vermont’s child care system experienced steady losses in both capacity and providers as closures outpaced new openings.
The decline culminated in fiscal year 2023, when the state lost more than 1,000 child care slots—the largest single-year drop in the period analyzed. Losses were widespread, affecting most counties and pushing overall capacity to its lowest point in several years.
Provider counts followed a similar trajectory. Each year from 2020 through 2023 recorded a net loss of programs, reducing the total number of licensed providers across the state.
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Recovery Restores Capacity, Not Providers
The trend reversed in fiscal year 2024, when new providers outnumbered closures for the first time since 2020.
That recovery continued into 2025, which saw the strongest growth in providers during the six-year period along with a net increase of more than 400 child care slots statewide.
By 2025, total licensed capacity had surpassed 2020 levels.
But the number of providers has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Vermont had more than 1,170 licensed child care programs in 2020. That number declined for several consecutive years and has only partially rebounded, remaining below earlier levels even as capacity has grown.
The result is a system that serves more children overall, but does so with fewer programs.
Growth Concentrated in Larger Programs
The increase in capacity has been driven primarily by center-based child care and preschool programs, which typically serve larger numbers of children per site.
At the same time, smaller providers have declined. Family child care homes—often operated by individual providers—saw a steady net loss over the period. Afterschool programs also decreased overall, with only modest recovery in recent years.
This shift suggests a consolidation of the system, with larger programs accounting for a growing share of available slots while smaller operations continue to disappear.
Infant and Toddler Care Remains Constrained
Not all segments of the system have expanded equally.
Preschool and school-age programs account for the majority of available capacity and have driven most of the recent growth. Infant and toddler care remains more limited, with capacity holding relatively steady at roughly 3,000 to 3,600 slots statewide.
Despite the overall increase in capacity, those numbers have changed little over time, leaving access for younger children constrained compared to older age groups.
Regional Disparities Persist
The distribution of child care capacity across Vermont also remains uneven.
Chittenden County continues to account for the largest share, maintaining more than 10,000 licensed slots throughout the period. Smaller rural counties, including Essex County, have fewer than 200 slots and show only minor fluctuations year to year.
While most counties saw gains during the recovery in 2024 and 2025, the increases largely followed existing population patterns rather than significantly expanding access in less populated regions.
Lawmakers Advance New Licensing System
As the system stabilizes, lawmakers are moving to formalize the child care workforce through licensure.
S.206, as passed by the Senate, would require early childhood educators in programs regulated by the Child Development Division to obtain licenses through the Office of Professional Regulation. The bill creates a Vermont Board of Early Childhood Educators and establishes three levels of licensure, each with defined education and experience requirements.
The legislation also sets application and renewal fees, requires continuing education, and authorizes the board to adopt rules and oversee compliance. Implementation would begin in 2026, with full licensure requirements taking effect in 2028.
Focus on Family Child Care Providers
The bill includes specific provisions addressing family child care providers, a segment that has declined over the period covered by the state data.
It creates a licensure pathway for family child care providers but limits new applications for that category after January 1, 2029. It also establishes transitional licensing options for providers who do not yet meet the new educational requirements.
In addition, the bill requires a report to lawmakers by 2031 on the implementation of the licensure system, including changes in the number of family child care homes and recommendations to encourage new providers.
A System in Transition
The data describe a child care system that has stabilized after several years of decline, with total capacity now exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, the structure of that system has changed. Growth has been concentrated in larger, center-based programs, while the number of providers remains below earlier levels and smaller operations continue to decline.
As Vermont moves to implement a new licensing framework for early childhood educators, the system it will regulate is already different from the one that existed before the pandemic—larger in total capacity, but more centralized and reliant on fewer providers.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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