If you’ve been watching the headlines this week, you’ve probably seen the usual panic: the stock market dipped, new tariffs were announced, and media pundits are already blaming Trump’s trade policies for “economic uncertainty.”
But let’s be honest—the cracks in the U.S. economy started long before any tariff talk. For years now, Americans have watched prices rise, home ownership fall, and their paychecks buy less. The headlines may say the economy is strong, but the lived reality tells a different story. Most people sense something is wrong—even if the numbers on paper still say otherwise.
That disconnect—between official statistics and everyday struggle—isn’t just a blip. It’s the sign of a deeper, long-term breakdown. A slow-motion collapse that started back in 2008, if not earlier, and has only been papered over with debt, inflation, and political denial ever since.
National Illusion, Real-World Decay
Since the financial crisis, the federal government has kept the system afloat through unprecedented borrowing and monetary manipulation. When Wall Street nearly collapsed in 2008, we bailed out the banks instead of letting them fail and restructuring our economy. That was the turning point.
The national debt now stands at over $34 trillion. Rising interest rates mean the cost of servicing that debt is climbing fast—crowding out other priorities and putting massive pressure on federal programs. Inflation has eaten away at purchasing power, even as the official Consumer Price Index tries to downplay it. Meanwhile, the stock market and housing prices have been inflated by cheap money, not real productivity.
The result? A Potemkin economy. It looks stable, but only because the foundation is made of borrowed money and false confidence.
What Trump’s Tariff Plan Is Really About
This week’s tariff headlines may sound extreme, but the bigger picture is often missed. Trump’s proposed “Liberation Day” tariff policy isn’t just about punishing other countries—it’s about trying to prevent a full-scale collapse of America’s industrial base.
For decades, the U.S. offshored its manufacturing and gutted its working class in the name of globalization. Cheap foreign labor made Wall Street happy, but it left communities hollowed out and made America dangerously reliant on supply chains we don’t control—especially from adversarial regimes like China.
Trump’s tariff push is about rebuilding domestic capacity—factories, energy production, supply chains, and skilled labor—so the country can actually stand on its own again. It’s not about isolationism. It’s about economic survival and protecting American sovereignty before the next crisis forces our hand.
Yes, it will be challenging. There will be short-term pain as we transition away from cheap imports and rebuild what was lost. But that’s the price of fixing decades of bad policy. These are moves that should have been made years ago, especially after the 2008 financial collapse. Instead of restructuring, we got bailouts. Instead of tough love, we got more debt.
Now, the bill is coming due. And Trump, for all his controversy, is one of the few actually trying to pay it before the system implodes.
Vermont: Economically Fragile, Politically Blind
Here in Vermont, the warnings should be hitting even harder. We are one of the most federally dependent states in the nation. A huge portion of our state budget—from Medicaid to education to food assistance—is funded by federal transfers. Without that pipeline from Washington, the books don’t balance.
And yet, no one in leadership is sounding the alarm. Senator Peter Welch recently warned that if federal budget negotiations go badly, programs like Medicaid and food aid could face cuts. But rather than treat that as a wake-up call, Vermont’s political class is talking about raising taxes to keep spending right where it is.
The logic seems to be: If the feds cut back, we’ll just squeeze Vermonters harder. That’s not a plan—that’s a panic move.
What Vermont Should Be Doing Instead
If Vermont’s leadership had its eyes open, it would be using this moment to rethink our economic model. We should be:
1. Cutting Costs and Streamlining Government
- Freeze non-essential spending and programs.
- Audit departments and agencies for efficiency.
- Sunset duplicative or ineffective initiatives.
2. Rolling Back Regulatory Burdens
- Repeal Act 250 and reduce other land-use laws that strangle development.
- Cut red tape for small businesses, tradesmen, and builders.
- Loosen occupational licensing to encourage entrepreneurship and economic self-sufficiency.
3. Rebuilding Local Economic Strength
- Incentivize manufacturing, food production, energy, and trades.
- Invest in vocational training and workforce development.
- Encourage private-sector innovation instead of bloating public-sector dependency.
4. Preparing for Reduced Federal Aid
- Model the state budget with 20–30% less federal money.
- Build fiscal reserves.
- Shift focus from government growth to economic resilience.
Conclusion: No One’s Coming to Save Us
The economic illusion is breaking down—slowly, then all at once. The stock market may rise and fall, but the long-term trajectory of American economic health is headed for a reckoning. Trump’s tariff policy, love it or hate it, is at least an attempt to correct course before that reckoning turns into collapse.
Vermont should take note. Our state cannot afford to wait until the federal money dries up to act. If we want a future where Vermonters can live, work, and thrive without Washington’s lifeline, we need to start making changes now.
Because when the crash comes—and it will—there won’t be a bailout waiting.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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