The Vermont Legislature has introduced S.1, a sweeping proposal for universal Medicaid-like healthcare coverage that sharply diverges from the voters’ calls for fiscal responsibility and the Governor’s emphasis on pragmatic solutions. Sponsored by Sen. Tanya Vyhovsky (P/D-Chittenden Central), Sen. Martine Gulick (D-Chittenden South), Sen. Anne Watson (D-Washington), and Sen. Rebecca White (D-Windsor), S.1 is a jaw-dropping proposal that takes boldness to new heights by proposing universal Medicaid-equivalent coverage for all residents—regardless of income—phased in by 2033. The bill’s framework and staggering financial implications should alarm every Vermonter and, indeed, U.S. taxpayers nationwide.
A Trojan Horse for Catastrophic Costs
The phased implementation of S.1 appears innocent enough: start by providing coverage to individuals under 26 in 2029, then gradually add older age groups until everyone is covered by 2033. On the surface, this gradual rollout seems pragmatic. But dig deeper, and you’ll see the terrifying truth: it’s a Trojan Horse strategy designed to disguise the plan’s crippling costs until it’s too late to turn back.
- Starting Cheap, Ending Expensive: Covering younger Vermonters first creates the illusion of affordability, as they are typically the least costly demographic to insure. Once the system is in place and politically entrenched, the state begins phasing in older, sicker residents—the ones who drive the majority of healthcare costs. By 2033, Vermont will be on the hook for insuring its most expensive populations, likely with no feasible way to reverse course.
The Federal Gambit
S.1 relies heavily on the hope that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will approve a waiver to provide federal funds for this universal coverage. If approved, U.S. taxpayers would foot more than half the bill for Vermont’s ambitious experiment. However, CMS has never approved a Medicaid waiver of this scope—making approval highly uncertain.
If the federal government declines, Vermont’s fallback plan is chilling: the entire cost shifts to state taxpayers. Based on current Medicaid spending, Vermont’s annual healthcare budget could balloon from $2 billion to over $5 billion. To put that into perspective, Vermont’s total state budget is only about $8.5 billion. Covering this shortfall would require massive tax hikes, likely devastating the state’s economy.
Sneaky Design, Disastrous Consequences
The design of this bill appears to minimize backlash during the early years:
- In 2029, Vermont starts with a manageable population of under-26s, allowing proponents to declare the program a success.
- By the time older, costlier populations are phased in, the program will be too politically entrenched to dismantle—even if the state’s finances are crumbling.
This strategy isn’t just fiscally irresponsible; it’s outright reckless. S.1 would tie Vermont’s future to a program whose costs are not just underestimated—they are unimaginable.
What’s at Stake for Vermonters
Even if federal funds materialize, Vermont would still need to cover $2.6 billion annually, more than double its current Medicaid spending. Funding options include:
- Payroll Taxes: Likely requiring a tax of 8–10%, crippling businesses and workers alike.
- Income or Sales Taxes: Adding to Vermont’s already high tax burden, driving residents and businesses out of the state.
Without federal support, Vermont would need to raise $5 billion annually on its own. This isn’t a hypothetical burden—it’s an economic apocalypse.
Conclusion: The “F*** It, You Pay for It” Act
S.1 might as well be called the “F*** It, You Pay for It” Act, because it hinges on U.S. taxpayers subsidizing Vermont’s bold experiment. If that doesn’t happen, the bill effectively tells Vermont taxpayers to pony up the equivalent of the entire state budget for a program that’s likely to implode under its own weight.
This is not a serious healthcare proposal. But many Vermonters didn’t think the Global Warming Solutions Act or the Clean Heat Standard were real threats when they were introduced either. It’s a fiscal time bomb that ignores the voters’ clear demand for fiscal responsibility and pragmatic solutions. Vermonters deserve thoughtful, transparent policymaking—not a reckless gamble that jeopardizes the state’s financial future while dismissing the concerns of those it claims to serve.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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