In a recent op-ed, Senator Wendy Harrison (D) Windham District proposed a lofty vision of bringing prosperity to Vermont. She highlighted the need for 39,000 new homes and the ambitious goal of attracting 13,500 new residents annually to sustain the state’s economic and social vitality. On the surface, this vision sounds compelling, but a closer look reveals a stark disconnect between her rhetoric and Vermont’s current realities.
The Population Puzzle
Senator Harrison argues that Vermont is growing, but the data paints a more nuanced picture. While the state’s population has increased modestly from 2000 to 2023, the growth rate—just 6.2% over two decades—lags behind national averages. Vermont faces significant out-migration, particularly among young people. From 2010 to 2018, the state experienced a net loss of 10,000 residents, with younger demographics leaving for greener pastures offering lower taxes, more opportunities, and less crime.
This migration trend has also been accompanied by a concerning shift in wealth. Vermont has seen a loss of higher-income individuals, exacerbating economic challenges.
The Economic Reality
Vermont’s economic conditions present significant challenges to achieving Harrison’s vision. The state’s high taxes, elevated cost of living, and limited job opportunities make it difficult to attract and retain the skilled workers needed to meet her proposed 13,500 annual migration goal. Businesses struggle under heavy regulatory burdens, and younger Vermonters leave for states with friendlier economic environments.
Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Vermont saw an influx of residents, the demographic shifts leaned heavily toward retirees and higher-income individuals seeking remote work opportunities. While this group provides some economic benefits, it doesn’t address the need for a robust, working-age labor force to fill critical gaps in Vermont’s industries.
Housing: The First Hurdle
The op-ed calls for 39,000 new homes to be built in the coming years, a staggering number given Vermont’s small population and tight labor market. Regulatory barriers and high construction costs make large-scale housing development difficult. Moreover, without addressing affordability, these homes may cater to wealthier transplants rather than middle- and working-class families.
State Assistance Trends
The growth in state assistance program enrollment adds another layer to the equation. Approximately 30% of Vermonters are on Medicaid, according to the Department of Vermont Health Access. Programs like Dr. Dynasaur and 3SquaresVT have seen increased participation, reflecting the economic pressures many residents face.
While these programs are vital for those in need, they also signal underlying economic struggles. If migration trends are bringing more people seeking assistance than contributing economically, the state’s fiscal sustainability could be at risk.
Words vs. Actions
A significant challenge to Harrison’s vision lies in the gap between her words and her voting record. While her op-ed promises prosperity, her legislative history reflects support for high-tax budgets, restrictive mandates, and policies that exacerbate the state’s affordability crisis. For example, her votes to expand renewable energy mandates and increase education taxes, while well-intentioned, may deter business investment and drive costs higher for residents.
This “say one thing, vote another” dynamic is not unique to Harrison—it’s a common theme in Montpelier. But the bait-and-switch nature of promising prosperity while enacting policies that create the opposite is wearing thin on Vermonters.
How to Truly Attract 13,500 New Residents
If Vermont’s legislature genuinely wants to attract 13,500 new residents annually, it must start with honesty and practical solutions. The first step is acknowledging the state’s challenges:
- Lower Taxes and Reduce Regulations: Creating a business-friendly environment is essential to attract companies and workers.
- Address the Housing Crisis: Streamlining regulations and incentivizing affordable housing development could make Vermont livable for middle- and working-class families.
- Focus on Retaining Young Vermonters: Invest in education and job creation to keep Vermont’s youth from leaving.
- Tackle Social Challenges: Address the opioid crisis and invest in public safety to ensure a safe, vibrant community for all.
A Call for Transparency
The most critical missing ingredient in Harrison’s op-ed is transparency. Vermonters deserve leaders who will level with them about the state’s economic and social realities. Instead of lofty rhetoric, imagine a representative saying: “I don’t know if I can fix all the problems, but I won’t mislead you about them. I’ll focus on real solutions, not platitudes.”
Senator Harrison’s vision is inspiring on paper but divorced from the current conditions facing the state. If Vermont’s leaders truly want to create a prosperous future, they must begin by fostering trust, being honest about the challenges, and crafting policies that make Vermont not just an attractive postcard but a viable place to live, work, and thrive.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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