As the Vermont Senate considers H.474—an election law overhaul that includes a “study” on implementing ranked-choice voting (RCV) for presidential primaries—many voters are asking a simple question: What exactly is ranked-choice voting, and why does it keep coming up?
Advocates claim RCV gives voters more say and reduces negativity. But opponents say it’s a confusing system with strategic consequences—and may quietly shift political outcomes in favor of certain parties and ideologies. While the current bill only calls for a feasibility report, history suggests such studies are often just the camel’s nose under the tent.
This article unpacks how ranked-choice voting works, what studies have shown, and why political operatives—especially progressives—are so fond of it.
🔢 What Is Ranked-Choice Voting?
In a traditional election, voters pick one candidate. Whoever gets the most votes wins, even if it’s not a majority.
In ranked-choice voting, voters rank candidates in order of preference—first choice, second choice, third, and so on. If no one gets a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The ballots that ranked the eliminated candidate first are then reallocated to those voters’ second choices. This process repeats in rounds until someone receives a majority of the remaining votes.
🗳️ A Real-World Example
Let’s say five candidates are running: Sarah, Jim, Lisa, Bob, and Tammy. There are 1,000 voters, and the first-choice results look like this:
- Sarah – 350
- Jim – 260
- Lisa – 180
- Bob – 120
- Tammy – 90
No one has a majority (501 votes), so Tammy, the last-place candidate, is eliminated.
Her 90 ballots are reviewed:
- 40 go to Lisa
- 30 go to Jim
- 20 had no second choice (these ballots become “exhausted”)
New Totals:
- Sarah – 350
- Jim – 290
- Lisa – 220
- Bob – 120
- Exhausted – 20
Still no majority. Next, Bob is eliminated. His votes break down as:
- 70 go to Jim
- 30 go to Sarah
- 10 go to Lisa
- 10 are exhausted
New Totals:
- Sarah – 380
- Jim – 360
- Lisa – 230
- Exhausted – 50
Still no majority. Now Lisa is eliminated. Her votes go:
- 150 to Jim
- 40 to Sarah
- 40 are exhausted
Final Totals:
- Sarah – 420
- Jim – 510
- Exhausted – 140
✅ Jim wins, even though Sarah led the first round by 90 votes.
This example shows how RCV can completely change the outcome depending on how second and third choices shake out.
🧠 What’s the Appeal?
RCV supporters argue it:
- Ensures a “majority winner” (though not necessarily from original first-choice votes)
- Reduces the “spoiler effect” from third-party or similar candidates
- Encourages more civil campaigning, as candidates aim to be voters’ second or third choices too
On paper, it seems like a thoughtful upgrade to our democratic system. But many observers argue the mathematics and the politics tell a different story.
📉 What Critics Point Out
1. Voter Confusion and Ballot Errors
RCV results in more ballot errors and misunderstandings, particularly among elderly, low-income, and less-educated voters. Some ballots are “exhausted” because voters either didn’t rank enough candidates or their remaining choices were already eliminated.
In Alaska’s 2022 congressional race, over 7,500 ballots were discarded due to exhaustion—despite voters having followed the rules.
2. “Majority Winner” Is Often a Mirage
While RCV claims to produce majority winners, that majority is often drawn from a shrinking pool of remaining ballots. In Maine’s 2018 race, the Republican led the first round, but the Democrat won after vote redistribution—even though he wasn’t the top choice of most voters.
3. Encourages Strategic Gaming
RCV rewards strategic rankings, not just honest preferences. Voters may rank a compromise candidate higher to block someone they dislike. Political groups now teach supporters how to game the system.
4. Built-In Advantage for Progressive Coalitions
RCV is heavily supported by left-leaning groups like FairVote, often backed by donors tied to the Tides Foundation or Open Society Network. Progressive candidates often run in packs, encouraging supporters to rank them all—ensuring their coalition survives elimination rounds.
In contrast, many moderate or conservative voters tend to “bullet vote” (only rank one), which limits their influence in later rounds.
5. Delayed Results and Audit Challenges
Because votes are re-tabulated in rounds, results often take days or even weeks. In New York City’s 2021 mayoral race, confusion over multiple rounds of RCV tabulation delayed results for over two weeks.
Each round of elimination also complicates verification, making hand recounts and audits far more difficult.
🧩 Why Vermont?
Why now?
Because Vermont is exactly the kind of low-population, high-participation state national advocacy groups target for proving grounds. Municipal RCV is already in use in Burlington (after being repealed and later reinstated), and advocates want statewide adoption—starting with presidential primaries.
H.474 doesn’t implement RCV yet—it only orders a study. But in other states, feasibility studies have quickly been followed by legislative pushes or rule changes. Once the Secretary of State’s office has the report in hand, supporters will claim the idea has been “vetted” and is ready for rollout.
🚨 Final Thought: Voters Deserve to Know
Ranked-choice voting isn’t just a new counting method—it’s a different model of campaigning, coalition-building, and voter behavior. It adds layers of complexity that change outcomes not just mathematically, but politically.
Supporters call it reform. Others see it as reform for a purpose—shifting control of elections without openly saying so.
If the camel’s nose is already under the tent, Vermonters may want to decide quickly: Do we want the rest of it following behind?
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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