Senator Peter Welch has introduced the American Renewable Energy Act (AREA), aiming to transition the United States to at least 70% renewable energy by 2034 and up to 100% by 2044. Promoted as a solution to high energy bills and a pathway to a cleaner future, the legislation follows a familiar playbook of ambitious targets and promises of long-term savings. However, closer scrutiny raises questions about its feasibility, the cost to taxpayers, and its focus on renewable mandates over foundational energy infrastructure upgrades.
This isn’t Welch’s first attempt at such legislation. A similar version introduced in 2021 failed to gain traction in Congress, raising concerns about the practicality and necessity of reintroducing it. Critics argue that taxpayer dollars spent drafting, promoting, and debating this bill could have been better allocated to address pressing, tangible issues, such as upgrading aging energy infrastructure.
The Bill’s Ambitions
The AREA sets aggressive renewable energy benchmarks for retail electricity suppliers: 20% by 2025, 70% by 2034, and 100% by 2044. It also mandates an increasing share of distributed renewable resources like rooftop solar. Penalties for noncompliance would fund renewable energy projects in underserved communities. Welch touts the bill as a win for consumers, claiming it will cut energy costs and create a more equitable energy future.
Yet the proposed targets raise concerns. Experts note that the U.S. power grid, including Vermont’s, is outdated and struggling to meet current demands. Without significant upgrades, it is ill-equipped to handle the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy or the increased load from electrification initiatives, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Vermont’s Energy Past: A Parallel to the Present
The dynamics of Welch’s bill echo Vermont’s 2012 Central Vermont Public Service (CVPS) and Green Mountain Power (GMP) merger. At the time, CVPS customers were owed $21 million from a previous bailout. Instead of direct refunds, the Public Service Board approved a plan to “invest” those funds in energy efficiency programs. While touted as beneficial to consumers, the decision left many Vermonters feeling shortchanged.
Similarly, Welch’s AREA proposes to redirect penalties and fees into renewable energy projects rather than addressing immediate concerns like grid modernization or direct consumer relief. In both cases, funds are channeled into politically favored initiatives under the guise of future savings, leaving taxpayers and ratepayers to shoulder the financial risk.
Overlooking Infrastructure
Critics of the AREA argue that it focuses on the wrong end of the problem. Achieving 100% renewable energy or zero emissions requires an ultra-modern, ultra-efficient energy infrastructure. Vermont’s and the nation’s power grids need substantial upgrades to handle the demands of renewable energy integration. Without these upgrades, the additional energy generated from solar panels, wind turbines, and hydroelectric dams could overwhelm transmission lines and substations, leading to inefficiencies, outages, or even grid failures.
Investing in infrastructure would also strengthen national security. The U.S. grid is vulnerable to cyberattacks and physical disruptions, risks that increase with the adoption of decentralized renewable systems. A modernized grid would not only support clean energy but also ensure reliability and resilience in the face of growing threats.
National Security Concerns
Welch’s bill also sidesteps the geopolitical implications of a rapid renewable transition. While the U.S. moves away from fossil fuels, adversaries like China and Russia continue to rely on them to fuel their economies and militaries. China, for instance, dominates the production of rare earth minerals essential for renewable technologies, creating supply chain vulnerabilities for the U.S.
Additionally, the U.S. military, which depends heavily on fossil fuels for operations, would face challenges if domestic production dwindled. A weakened energy infrastructure could compromise national defense, further exacerbating vulnerabilities.
Economic and Consumer Impacts
Proponents of renewable energy often promise long-term savings, but Vermonters have experienced firsthand how these promises can fall short. High-profile failures like Solyndra—a solar company that collapsed after receiving over $500 million in federal loans—highlight the risks of government-backed green investments.
Mandating renewables without addressing costs could lead to rate hikes as utilities pass compliance expenses onto consumers. Vermonters, already burdened with high energy bills, may see little immediate relief. Meanwhile, the penalties and fees proposed in Welch’s bill resemble a redistribution mechanism, using taxpayer dollars to fund projects chosen by policymakers rather than the market.
Alternatives Ignored
Welch’s bill misses an opportunity to prioritize pragmatic solutions. Investments in grid modernization and advanced nuclear power could provide the foundation for a cleaner energy future without the pitfalls of over-reliance on intermittent renewables. Modern nuclear reactors, for example, offer reliable, zero-emission power and complement renewable sources.
By focusing on infrastructure and energy diversity, policymakers could reduce emissions while ensuring affordability, reliability, and security. These solutions would address immediate needs while laying the groundwork for long-term sustainability.
Conclusion
Senator Welch’s American Renewable Energy Act reflects a broader trend in energy policy: ambitious goals overshadowing practical realities. Like Vermont’s CVPS-GMP merger, the bill redirects resources into politically favored initiatives, leaving critical infrastructure and consumer needs unmet.
While the transition to renewable energy is an important goal, achieving it requires starting with the basics. Upgrading the grid, embracing modern nuclear power, and ensuring energy independence should be the first steps. Instead of repeating the mistakes of the past, policymakers should focus on practical, cost-effective solutions that benefit all Vermonters.
In the end, Welch’s bill raises an important question: are we building a sustainable future, or just another costly experiment?
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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