How Modern Pedestrian Policy Forgot Common Sense and Made Walking More Dangerous
In the push for “walkable cities,” urban planners have reimagined roads to be more pedestrian-friendly — or so the theory goes. With painted crosswalks, raised intersections, “Complete Streets” policies, and Vision Zero campaigns, cities across America have signaled that people on foot should feel safer than ever.
But the numbers tell a different story.
After decades of decline, pedestrian deaths in the United States have surged — climbing 83% from 2009 to 2022. More than 7,500 people on foot were killed by vehicles in 2022, the highest number in over 40 years. So what happened?
The False Security of “Walkable”
The modern walkability movement traces back to the 1990s and early 2000s, when a new generation of urbanists began advocating for dense, mixed-use development and multimodal infrastructure. In theory, it was a noble idea: make towns less car-dependent, encourage walking, reduce pollution, and boost public health. But somewhere along the line, that concept morphed into a dangerous overcorrection — one where pedestrians were told they have the right-of-way, always, and that drivers simply need to adjust.
The assumption? That behavior would change to match the laws. The reality? Physics didn’t get the memo.
What the Data Shows
Here’s a look at pedestrian deaths over time:
As the chart makes clear, pedestrian deaths declined sharply from the late 1970s into the early 2000s — a period when common-sense crossing behaviors like “look both ways” were still widely practiced and taught. But beginning in 2009, the trend reversed. Today we’re nearly back to 1970s death tolls — despite far more signage, markings, and campaigns.
It’s no coincidence that the rise in deaths mirrors a rise in pedestrian entitlement and distraction — not just from phones, but from the idea that stepping into a painted crosswalk magically stops a two-ton pickup.
Moral Hazard in the Crosswalk
“Moral hazard” is a term economists use to describe how people behave less cautiously when they feel protected. That’s exactly what’s happening here. When we condition people — especially children — to believe that a painted line or flashing light means vehicles will (and can) stop, we encourage a behavioral shift toward blind trust.
Meanwhile, modern vehicles are bigger, heavier, and faster. SUVs and trucks now make up 79% of new vehicle sales, and they’re far more likely to kill or seriously injure pedestrians than sedans. Combine that with distracted driving, shorter attention spans, and overconfident foot traffic, and you have a recipe for disaster.
The Failure of One-Size-Fits-All Crosswalks
Historically, marked crosswalks helped organize chaos. But studies have shown that paint alone can be worse than nothing on high-speed, multi-lane roads. In a 2005 Federal Highway Administration study, pedestrians were more likely to be hit at marked crosswalks than at unmarked ones on busy roads — unless the crosswalks had added features like flashing beacons or medians.
That’s because crosswalks can create a false sense of security. Drivers may not stop. And even if one driver does, another in the next lane might not. It’s called the “multiple threat crash,” and it’s tragically common.
Relearning What We Forgot
We’ve engineered common sense out of our streets. But we can bring it back.
Start by teaching — and enforcing — personal responsibility:
- Look both ways. Again and again.
- Never assume a driver sees you, even in a crosswalk.
- Don’t use crosswalks as armor — they’re tools, not shields.
- Reinforce defensive walking, especially with kids.
Second, we need to rethink legal priorities. Maybe it’s time to admit that larger, faster, heavier vehicles should have the right-of-way in certain contexts — not because it’s fair, but because it’s reality. Laws that ignore physical dynamics are not just ineffective — they’re deadly.
Finally, traffic engineers should stop treating crosswalks like magic wands. A thick white line won’t slow a distracted driver doing 45 mph in an SUV. But things like refuge islands, speed humps, flashing lights, and enforced signals can make a real difference.
Bottom Line
Pedestrian safety isn’t about paint. It’s about awareness, physics, and humility. Giving people the right to cross is fine — but telling them it’s safe simply because they can is reckless. Until we undo the cultural shift that tells pedestrians to trust the law more than their eyes, the body count will keep climbing.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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