Vermont may still rank among the safest states in the country on paper, but for many residents watching security camera footage night after night, the numbers just don’t add up. A growing chorus of property owners across the state say their communities have become hunting grounds for repeat offenders—vandals, thieves, and prowlers—who strike with alarming frequency, often within the same week, sometimes the same night.
Since 2018, when Vermont passed sweeping bail reform legislation in the form of Act 164 (H.728), many offenders arrested for nonviolent misdemeanors have been released on citation rather than held on bail. In 2023, the state doubled down with S.27, a Senate bill further limiting the use of cash bail for most low-level offenses.
Advocates of these policies argue they are a necessary step toward justice reform, preventing unnecessary incarceration for the poor and addressing racial and socioeconomic disparities. But for many Vermonters, the real-world result has been a revolving door of emboldened offenders and a rising tide of neighborhood crime.
“I don’t care what the reports say—people are being victimized more,” said one frustrated property owner in central Vermont. “We’ve created our own version of The Walking Dead, and the cops are just as exhausted as we are.”
Official Data Paints a Rosier Picture
According to annual Vermont Crime Reports compiled by the Vermont Crime Information Center (VCIC), overall crime trended downward between 2012 and 2016. The state’s violent crime rate remained relatively flat during that period, and property crime rates showed consistent decline.
Between 2017 and 2019, Vermont’s crime rates appeared to stabilize. However, recent reports show signs of a reversal. The 2022 Crime Report, the most recent available, notes an 11.6% increase in property crimes compared to 2019, and a 10.6% increase over 2021 alone.
Motor vehicle theft has surged in recent years, as has the number of larcenies. These figures still place Vermont well below national averages—but that’s cold comfort to residents whose neighborhoods have become nightly targets.
Citations vs. Accountability
A critical question Vermonters are asking is whether the shift to citation-based releases is part of the problem. Prior to the 2018 reforms, even low-level offenders often had to post bail, which gave them a financial stake in returning to court. Today, with most misdemeanors resulting in a simple promise to appear, some repeat offenders seem to treat their citations like parking tickets.
While there’s limited Vermont-specific data on failure-to-appear (FTA) rates post-reform, critics point to the observable increase in “frequent flyers” as proof that the current system isn’t working.
“The system is upside down,” said one former municipal official. “You can be arrested Monday night, walk out on citation Tuesday morning, and be prowling again by Tuesday night.”
In its defense, the Vermont Legislature cited national research suggesting that FTAs don’t significantly increase under bail reform. But these studies often rely on data from large urban centers and may not reflect the rural and small-town dynamics of Vermont communities.
Public Perception vs. Policy Narrative
Residents say it’s not just about stats—it’s about the everyday experience of feeling unsafe. A significant number of property crimes go unreported, especially when the stolen item is minor or the victim believes law enforcement can’t do much. The growing use of security cameras and neighborhood apps like Ring and Nextdoor has brought these incidents into sharper focus.
“Five years ago, I didn’t know anyone whose truck got broken into,” one Rutland resident said. “Now it’s every week, and it’s not just once—it’s over and over.”
The political narrative, meanwhile, continues to push in the other direction. Bail reform remains popular among many progressive lawmakers, and efforts to reverse or amend these policies are met with resistance. The 2023 sponsors of S.27—Senators Kesha Ram Hinsdale, Martine Gulick, Ruth Hardy, Tanya Vyhovsky, and Anne Watson—successfully passed the bill in the Senate.
Of those, four were re-elected in 2024, including Kesha Ram Hinsdale, who became Senate Majority Leader, and Gulick, Hardy, and Watson, all of whom retained their seats. Vyhovsky, however, did not seek re-election.
In the House, Act 164’s original sponsors from 2018 included Representatives Maxine Grad, Selene Colburn, Martin LaLonde, and others. Several have since stepped away from public office, while LaLonde and Barbara Rachelson were re-elected in 2024.
A Crisis of Confidence
Ultimately, the disconnect between crime reports and public sentiment in Vermont appears to reflect a broader crisis of confidence. Vermonters are seeing more crime, experiencing more violations of their space and property, and feel that the justice system is no longer structured to protect them.
Law enforcement officials, too, have expressed concern over the lack of consequences for repeat offenders, though many are hesitant to speak publicly. As more security footage surfaces each week and property owners grow weary of the nightly siege, pressure is mounting for the legislature to reevaluate the impact of citation-first policies.
The question now is: will Vermont listen to its citizens—or keep relying on a statistical framework that increasingly feels divorced from reality?
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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