In a recently released open letter to Governor Phil Scott, health educator and Vermont Stands Up director Amy Hornblass raises a stark question: why has Vermont’s Department of Health not investigated the state’s persistent surge in excess deaths since the onset of COVID-19 restrictions?
At the center of that question is a now-circulating claim made by outgoing Health Commissioner Dr. Mark Levine. During an April 2025 episode of Vermont Edition on VPR, Dr. Levine reportedly told a caller that Vermont’s population is “too small” to yield statistically significant conclusions from its mortality data.
That answer, Hornblass argues, is not just unsatisfying—it’s scientifically unsound.
Public Voice? “Not Traditionally Utilized”
In an email exchange that helped prompt the open letter, Monica Hull—writing on behalf of the administration—confirmed that the Agency of Human Services is reviewing candidates. But when Hornblass asked if the public could be included in the selection process, Hull responded
“I’m not sure what you mean by the public being involved… I don’t believe that we’ve traditionally utilized a public process for hiring our Commissioners.”
For Vermonters who lived through years of lockdowns, mandates, and health department directives that reshaped daily life, the idea that their input is considered irrelevant strikes a deeper nerve. Critics argue that it’s precisely this kind of insulated decision-making that eroded public trust in the first place.
Thousands of Extra Deaths
According to publicly available Vital Statistics reports from the Vermont Department of Health, the state averaged just under 5,900 deaths per year from 2015 through 2019. In 2020, that number rose by 505. In 2021, it jumped by 924. The next year, another 1,016 excess deaths were recorded, and 2023 saw a further 815 above the pre-pandemic baseline.
In total, Vermont has recorded over 3,200 excess deaths since 2020 that cannot be attributed solely to COVID-19. These aren’t speculative figures—they’re drawn directly from official Vermont Department of Health Vital Statistics Reports, including data from 2015 through 2023.
And in a state with a population of approximately 645,000, a jump from ~5,900 to nearly 7,000 deaths per year is a 13–17% increase in mortality. That is not a rounding error. That is a trend.
Note: Annual reports from 2019 to 2022 were used to calculate baseline and excess death trends. All are available at healthvermont.gov under Vital Records.
CDC: Even 1% Increases Are Red Flags
Contrary to Dr. Levine’s dismissal, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) routinely tracks excess deaths at the county level, including rural counties much smaller than the state of Vermont. In fact, the CDC’s own Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 dashboard explicitly notes that increases as small as 1–2% in all-cause mortality are flagged for public health evaluation.
Statistical significance is not a question of population size alone—it’s a question of consistency, magnitude, and context. With Vermont’s excess deaths sustained over four years, crossing every age group, and correlating with similar national patterns, the data is more than sufficient to justify analysis.
“There is no statistical rationale for ignoring this data,” said one public health statistician we contacted for comment. “Small states can still yield meaningful insights—especially when the signal is this strong.”
Changing Standards for Convenience?
Hornblass’s letter draws an uncomfortable contrast: in March 2020, Vermont closed its schools, businesses, and state offices following a single COVID-related death. That was enough to trigger sweeping emergency orders.
Now, with thousands of unexplained deaths, the state is claiming the numbers are too small to matter?
This perceived double standard is at the heart of growing public frustration—not just with the data, but with how it’s selectively used to justify policy. “We need consistency,” Hornblass writes. “One death was once enough to close the state. Now, 3,000 excess deaths are too few to count?”
A Call for Accountability
Hornblass stops short of directly blaming the Department of Health’s pandemic measures for the rising deaths, but she raises the possibility that the cure may have been worse than the disease. She calls for a formal cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns, school closures, and prolonged mask and vaccine mandates.
Her concern is shared by others. Insurers, actuaries, and independent researchers have noted a spike in deaths among working-age adults since 2021, and several large disability and life insurers have begun sounding alarm bells.
Meanwhile, Vermont’s health system continues to face staffing shortages, delayed care, and increased emergency room strain. Schools and businesses report similar health-related absences. Whether directly or indirectly linked, the state’s health metrics are trending in the wrong direction.
The Road Ahead
With Dr. Levine stepping down, Hornblass is urging the governor to consider a new kind of leadership—someone willing to listen to the public, revisit the assumptions of the past five years, and make decisions based on open scientific debate rather than unilateral authority.
“Science evolves,” Hornblass writes. “A good commissioner should, too.”
Whether state officials acknowledge the issue or not, the numbers are no longer whispering—they’re shouting. The only question now is whether anyone in Montpelier is willing to listen.
Read the full open letter here (PDF)
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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