A Look at the Numbers Behind the Debate
As national debate reignites over border policy and immigration enforcement, one of the most frequently cited defenses of illegal immigration is economic: “They pay taxes.” The implication is that illegal immigrants are a net benefit—or at least a neutral presence—when it comes to government revenues and expenditures.
To test that claim, we examined the best available data from across the ideological spectrum—government sources, academic studies, and think tanks both progressive and conservative. Estimates vary widely, but the data paints a clearer picture than many headlines or political talking points suggest.
How Many Illegal Immigrants Are in the U.S.?
There’s no universal agreement on the total number of illegal immigrants currently residing in the U.S., but there is a clear range of estimates:
- Department of Homeland Security (DHS): ~11.4 million
- Yale/MIT Study (2018): 16.7 to 29 million, with a median near 22 million
- Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR): 20–25 million
For the purposes of this analysis, we used 20 million as a reasonable midpoint between official low-end counts and academic or advocacy high-end estimates.
How Much Do They Pay in Taxes?
Despite legal status, many illegal immigrants do pay taxes—through payroll withholding, income tax returns filed with ITINs, and everyday purchases subject to sales and excise taxes.
Income and Payroll Taxes
According to the Social Security Administration, an estimated 50–75% of illegal immigrants work “on the books” using fake or borrowed Social Security numbers or taxpayer identification numbers (ITINs), resulting in payroll tax withholding.
- In 2010, the SSA estimated that unauthorized workers contributed approximately $13 billion per year in Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes.
- While SSA has not updated this figure since, applying inflation, wage growth, and scaling to a population of 20 million suggests a 2025 estimate of $20–25 billion/year in payroll tax contributions.
- Additionally, illegal immigrants who file returns using ITINs are estimated to contribute $10–15 billion/year in federal and state income taxes, based on data from the IRS and independent tax policy researchers.
Sales, Excise, and Property Taxes
Even those working “under the table” pay taxes through consumption:
- Based on household consumption and average state/local tax rates, illegal immigrants contribute an estimated $8–12 billion/year in sales and excise taxes.
- Renters indirectly pay property taxes through their landlords, contributing another $2–3 billion/year.
Total Estimated Tax Contribution
Adding it all together:
| Tax Type | Estimated Contribution |
|---|---|
| Social Security/Medicare | $20–25 billion |
| Income Taxes | $10–15 billion |
| Sales & Excise Taxes | $8–12 billion |
| Property Taxes (indirect) | $2–3 billion |
| Total (All Sources) | $40–55 billion/year |
That works out to about $2,000–2,750 per person per year in tax contributions across all levels of government.
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What Do Illegal Immigrants Cost?
While there is debate over exact figures, most agree that illegal immigrants use public services—particularly at the state and local level. Key cost categories include:
- Public K–12 education for ~4.4 million children of illegal immigrants
- Emergency Medicaid and uncompensated hospital care
- Criminal justice and incarceration
- Subsidized housing and infrastructure strain
Estimates of total government spending attributable to illegal immigrants range widely:
- Cato Institute(Libertarian): ~$20 billion/year
- Center for Immigration Studies (Moderate-Restrictive): ~$50 billion/year
- FAIR (Conservative): ~$150 billion/year
Taking a middle-ground estimate, we assume $60–100 billion/year in public costs attributable to the illegal immigrant population.
The Net Fiscal Impact
| Low Estimate | High Estimate | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Collected | $40B | $55B |
| Services Consumed | $60B | $100B |
| Net Fiscal Burden | $5B | $60B |
In short, taxpayers are likely subsidizing illegal immigrants by $5 to $60 billion annually, depending on assumptions.
What Does That Mean for Taxpayers?
With roughly 150 million individual taxpayers in the U.S., the net burden translates to:
- $33 to $400 per taxpayer per year
That’s not enough to drive federal deficit numbers—but it’s not immaterial either, particularly for states like California, Texas, and Florida where immigrant populations are highest.
Conclusion
While it’s true that many illegal immigrants pay taxes, the broader fiscal picture suggests that the average illegal immigrant receives more in government services than they contribute in taxes. Removing them from the system would, based on current numbers, save U.S. taxpayers billions annually—though not without labor market or economic consequences.
The facts are complex, but one thing is clear: The claim that illegal immigrants are paying their fair share is not supported by the math.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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