Vermont’s demographic trends, as highlighted in the latest report from the Vermont Joint Fiscal Office (JFO), paint a picture of a state at a critical crossroads. Despite some gains in population through in-migration, long-term issues such as an aging workforce, declining birth rates, and rural depopulation threaten to create a future characterized by economic stagnation, rising costs, and strained public services. Unless bold measures are taken to attract a younger and more diverse population, the state risks facing a future that is both expensive and grim.
Population Trends Offer Warnings, Not Hope
The JFO report shows Vermont’s population grew by an estimated 4,400 people from 2020 to 2023, with domestic and international in-migration staving off a net decline that would have occurred due to a natural population decrease of over 5,000 people. In other words, without new residents moving into the state, Vermont would have experienced a significant population decline. While net in-migration has helped maintain population levels, growth remains modest and fails to offset the larger issue: the state’s demographic composition is shifting in an unsustainable direction.
Vermont’s under-18 population has declined by about 3% since 2020, while the working-age population continues to shrink. In contrast, the number of residents aged 65 and older has increased significantly, with a 10% jump among those aged 65-79. This shift means fewer people are available to fill jobs, pay taxes, and contribute to the social safety net, while more are relying on social services and healthcare. If these trends continue, Vermont will face increasing pressures on its already stretched budget, with a smaller base of taxpayers left to carry the load.
Economic Implications: Rising Costs and Limited Growth
If Vermont maintains the status quo, it risks facing a range of economic challenges. One of the most significant is the rising tax burden that could be placed on the dwindling working-age population. As more Vermonters retire and fewer young people move in, the state will have fewer workers contributing to the economy and paying taxes, even as demand for services, especially healthcare, continues to rise. This could result in higher income and property taxes to fund pensions, social services, and infrastructure, further discouraging young professionals and families from settling in the state.
The labor shortage will likely worsen, particularly in the healthcare sector, which already struggles with staffing shortages. Vermont’s aging population will only increase the need for healthcare services, making it even more difficult to find enough doctors, nurses, and support staff to meet demand. Other sectors, such as education and skilled trades, may also struggle to fill positions, potentially leading to reduced services, higher costs, and lower quality of life.
In rural areas, these trends could accelerate a cycle of decline. As young people leave in search of better opportunities elsewhere, local economies could contract, resulting in school closures, reduced access to healthcare, and diminishing community services. This would exacerbate the divide between urban centers and rural regions, leaving large parts of Vermont economically stagnant.
Potential Solutions: Attracting the Needed Population
For Vermont to avoid this grim future, a multifaceted approach is needed to make the state more attractive to young professionals, families, and businesses. Lowering the cost of living and doing business in the state is essential. This could involve reducing regulatory burdens, simplifying zoning rules, and offering targeted tax incentives to entice young people, remote workers, and businesses to settle in Vermont. Affordable housing initiatives should be prioritized, with a focus on easing zoning restrictions and encouraging the construction of starter homes and multi-family units.
Expanding workforce training programs could help address labor shortages and ensure that Vermonters have the skills needed for in-demand jobs. This includes strengthening STEM education, vocational training, and apprenticeship programs in high schools and community colleges. Partnering with local businesses to offer practical, hands-on experience can help retain young people in the state by providing career pathways that keep them invested in Vermont’s future.
In healthcare, recruiting and retaining medical professionals should be a top priority. Offering loan forgiveness, signing bonuses, or housing assistance for doctors and nurses who agree to work in underserved areas could help fill critical gaps. Expanding telehealth services would also make healthcare more accessible to rural communities, reducing the burden on existing facilities.
Leveraging Vermont’s Quality of Life
While the challenges are significant, Vermont’s strengths should not be overlooked. The state is known for its natural beauty, outdoor recreation opportunities, and close-knit communities. These qualities can be powerful tools in attracting a new population if effectively marketed. Promoting Vermont as a destination for remote workers, with programs that offer relocation incentives and support for home-based businesses, could help draw young professionals who value a high quality of life and a balanced lifestyle.
Creating cultural and social hubs in towns and cities across the state would also make Vermont more appealing. Investing in arts, music, and social venues can help foster vibrant communities that attract and retain talent. Developing innovation hubs, coworking spaces, and business incubators could further support remote workers and entrepreneurs.
The Need for Bold Action
Ultimately, Vermont’s future hinges on its ability to adapt to these demographic and economic shifts. The state must take proactive steps to attract the people it needs to sustain economic growth, support public services, and maintain a high quality of life. Without significant reforms and investments in housing, education, healthcare, and economic development, the challenges will only deepen.
The state is at a crossroads. Vermont can either embrace bold changes that attract a younger, diverse population, or continue down a path that could lead to economic stagnation and an increasingly heavy tax burden. The choice is clear, but the window for action is closing fast. To secure a prosperous future, Vermont must make the hard decisions now to build a state where people want to live, work, and raise their families.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
You can find FYIVT on YouTube | X(Twitter) | Facebook | Parler (@fyivt) | Gab | Instagram
#fyivt #VermontFuture #EconomicGrowth #DemographicChallenges
Support Us for as Little as $5 – Get In The Fight!!
Make a Big Impact with $25/month—Become a Premium Supporter!
Join the Top Tier of Supporters with $50/month—Become a SUPER Supporter!
Leave a Reply