While Vermont’s political class races to electrify everything—and raises the cost of heating fuels in the name of climate change—there’s a quieter, more scientifically grounded climate threat that deserves our attention—especially here in the Northeast. It’s not sea-level rise. It’s not wildfires. It’s not endless summer heat waves. It’s the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC—and it could mean a return to the deep, snow-heavy, cold winters of the 1960s and ’70s within our lifetimes.

The AMOC is a critical piece of the planet’s climate system. It’s a vast, heat-moving ocean current system that ferries warm water from the tropics northward, where it cools, sinks, and drives a global conveyor belt of circulation. In the North Atlantic, it helps keep Europe temperate and moderates the climate of the northeastern U.S.—including Vermont.

A Real-Time Climate Threat

When the AMOC circulation weakens or shuts down, the heat stops flowing. That’s not speculation; it’s what happens when the balance of salt, temperature, and density in the North Atlantic breaks down. And that balance is already breaking. We’ve measured it. In fact, AMOC strength is now at its weakest point in over 1,000 years, and it’s been declining sharply since the 1950s.

A 2024 study published in Science Advances developed a physics-based early warning signal for AMOC collapse, concluding that the current trajectory is consistent with the system approaching a tipping point. A 2023 review of multiple data sets reinforced the warning: if current meltwater trends from Greenland continue, the collapse could come within the next 20–30 years.

This is not the vague “tipping point” language of UN reports or speculative 2100 sea level guesses. This is a direct physical system that is observable, measurable, and currently in decline. And if it collapses, we won’t get a Hollywood-style ice age. What we’ll get, at least in Vermont, is a return to the brutal, cold, snow-packed winters older Vermonters grew up with.

Imagine 1970s winters with today’s heating bills.

The Real Threat Is Getting Caught Off Guard

The true danger isn’t the cold—it’s the fact that Vermont is planning for the exact opposite. Billions of dollars are being directed toward “climate resilience” based on warming models that assume milder winters, more rain than snow, and shorter heating seasons. But if the AMOC collapses—and again, many believe it’s likely—we’ll see longer, colder winters, higher snow totals, shorter growing seasons, and more spring flooding.

We’ll also see a surge in heating demand just as Vermont is moving to eliminate or heavily discourage fuel oil, propane, and even wood stoves in favor of electric heat pumps powered by solar panels.

This would be a strategic mistake of historic proportions.

Solar panels under snow don’t generate. Heat pumps underperform in deep cold. And the grid—already stretched thin—may not be ready for a 1970s-style cold snap, let alone a whole season of them. Meanwhile, policymakers are pushing to phase out the very systems Vermonters have always relied on when the lights go out: wood, diesel, propane, and oil.

That’s where S.110 comes in.

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S.110: Grounded, Resilient Policy for the Climate We Might Actually Get

A bill currently being taken up in the Vermont Senate Committee on Natural Resources and Energy, S.110 proposes exactly the kind of course correction we need. It repeals the restrictive Affordable Heat Act, transitions Vermont’s climate mandates into achievable goals, and updates our energy framework to a Clean Energy Standard—allowing not just solar and wind, but also hydro, nuclear, and any other non-carbon-emitting energy source that actually works in the real world.

Most importantly, S.110 protects Vermonters’ right to heat their homes in the way that works best for them, including wood, propane, and other forms of affordable, locally available fuel. It ensures that our energy future isn’t just clean—it’s resilient, diverse, and based on real-world performance, not idealized scenarios.

It’s also one of the few pieces of legislation that directly strengthens Vermont’s ability to adapt if the AMOC collapse plays out in the near future. And given what the science is telling us, that’s not something we should ignore.

What the Models Say—And What They Miss

Many climate models project Vermont will continue to warm, especially in winter. The state’s own Climate Action Plan, along with national and international assessments, assumes a future where winters get milder, growing seasons get longer, and snow gives way to rain. Those models are built on scenarios where global warming continues and the AMOC only weakens, but doesn’t collapse.

But here’s the problem: those projections don’t account for what happens if the AMOC actually fails—an outcome many scientists believe could happen within the next 20 to 30 years. When models do include a full AMOC shutdown, the warming trend in the Northeast either stalls or reverses entirely, with Vermont seeing colder, harsher winters for several decades.

So yes—it’s possible Vermont continues to warm. But it’s just as possible we don’t. And that’s why the policies in place today—like those under the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA)—are so risky. They assume a single outcome and design top-down mandates based on it.

S.110, by contrast, acknowledges that we don’t know exactly how the climate will behave—and instead of forcing Vermonters into one-size-fits-all solutions, it gives them the flexibility and tools to adapt to whichever path reality takes.

We Don’t Need More Panic—We Need More Planning

We’ve spent decades arguing about climate change in terms that are either alarmist or dismissive. The AMOC isn’t about belief—it’s hard science. It’s a phenomenon that we’re actively monitoring. It doesn’t depend on assumptions about global emissions, political agreements, or social behavior. It’s a mechanical system showing signs of imminent failure.

The science is divided. But the risk is real. And Vermont’s policies are currently planning for only one outcome: warming. If the other outcome—cooling—hits us first, we’re not ready.

Vermonters don’t need to panic—they need to prepare.

And that starts by telling Montpelier to start listening. Contact your legislators. Call the Sergeant-at-Arms at (802) 828-2228. Tell them you support S.110—not because you don’t care about the climate, but because you want energy policy that actually prepares for it.

In the end, it’s not about being “for” or “against” climate action. It’s about whether Vermont is planning for the right climate. And if we’re not, it won’t matter how green the grid looks on paper—it’ll be covered in snow either way.

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Dave Soulia | FYIVT

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