Editor’s Note:
This article is a little longer than our usual pieces, but the topic is critical to understanding how Vermont’s energy policies impact your wallet, our state’s emissions, and the emissions emanating from Montpelier. Stick with us—this is information every Vermonter deserves to know.
Vermonters are being scammed—and they’re paying for it twice. While you pay some of the nation’s highest electric rates to fund Vermont’s renewable energy revolution, utilities sell the environmental credit for that clean energy to other states. On paper, Vermont looks like it’s using dirtier electricity from the regional ISO New England grid, artificially inflating its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and justifying costly climate mandates like the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA). In reality, Vermont’s electricity is among the cleanest in the country. Meanwhile, as Vermont provides renewable energy to its neighbors, residents are left footing the bill.
What Are Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs)?
A Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) is essentially a “green credit” issued for every megawatt-hour (MWh) of renewable electricity generated. This credit can be separated from the actual electricity and sold to buyers—typically utilities in other states—seeking to meet their own renewable energy mandates.
In practice, this means Vermont’s locally produced renewable electricity powers homes in the state, but the “environmental credit” for that energy is sold out-of-state. This allows buyers like Massachusetts utilities to claim “green” energy on paper; in trade, Vermont forfeits those credits, which artificially inflates its reported GHG emissions. The same unit of renewable electricity is, in effect, sold twice—once as energy, and once as a green credit.
RECs were designed as a market-based tool—a mechanism where a “market” for buying and selling environmental attributes incentivizes renewable energy production. However, in Vermont’s case, the market’s design creates a glaring mismatch between clean energy production and environmental accountability.
Vermont’s Inflated GHG Numbers
Vermont’s reported emissions are inflated because REC sales mean Vermont cannot claim its own renewable energy benefits. Instead, Vermont is required to pretend in its emissions report as if it relied on the regional ISO New England grid, which includes a mix of fossil fuels.
Here’s how the numbers break down:
- Current Reported GHG Emissions: Vermont’s emissions are reported at 8.2 million metric tons of CO₂e annually.
- Electric Sector Contribution: The electricity sector accounts for ~10% of this total, or about 820,000 metric tons of CO₂e.
- Actual Emissions: If Vermont kept its RECs, its electric-sector emissions would drop to nearly zero, reducing total emissions by 6–10% and bringing Vermont closer to its GHG goals.
Addressing the “30 by 30” Target
Vermont’s 30 by 30 goal aims to reduce GHG emissions by 30% below 1990 levels by 2030, targeting a total of 5.67 million metric tons CO₂e.
Currently, Vermont’s reported emissions are 8.2 million metric tons CO₂e, inflated by how Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are sold and accounted for. With honest REC accounting—where Vermont retains its environmental credits—electricity-sector emissions (~820,000 metric tons CO₂e) would drop to nearly zero. This adjustment would reduce Vermont’s total emissions to 7.4–7.7 million metric tons CO₂e annually.
While Vermont wouldn’t fully meet the 30 by 30 target with this adjustment, it would demonstrate significant progress, reducing the need for extreme mandates like the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA). This highlights how inflated GHG numbers have created an exaggerated narrative of Vermont’s environmental challenges, fueling costly policies that place unnecessary financial burdens on ratepayers and taxpayers alike.
The Kardashians of the Green Movement
Much like the Kardashians, Vermont’s Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) are all about appearances. They allow utilities and states to look good on paper without requiring real reductions in emissions. But this superficiality goes even deeper when you examine the timeline of legislative decisions leading to Vermont’s current predicament.
- 2008: Vermont enacts 10 V.S.A. § 582, mandating the recording and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is framed as a step toward environmental accountability.
- 2014: Vermont Yankee nuclear plant closes, eliminating a major source of carbon-free electricity. The state shifts to sourcing power from ISO New England, increasing its reliance on fossil fuels and raising reported GHG emissions.
- 2017: The Legislature enacts the Renewable Energy Standard (RES), codifying the sale of RECs out-of-state. This policy leads to Vermont forfeiting the environmental credit for its clean energy while reporting artificially inflated GHG emissions.
- 2020: Based on these inflated numbers, the Legislature passes the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA), codifying aggressive emissions reduction targets into law and creating legal pathways for citizens to sue the state if those goals aren’t met.
Since 2017, Vermont has been reporting elevated GHG emissions due to REC sales, and the state has imposed financially punitive laws on its residents based on these distorted figures. The legislature effectively created a requirement to record GHG values, then enacted policies to deliberately inflate those values, leading to self-imposed mandates that cost taxpayers millions of dollars.
The absurdity? If Vermont achieved every single one of its self-imposed environmental “goals,” it would mean absolutely nothing on a global or national scale. Vermont’s contribution to U.S. GHG emissions is already negligible, and the penalties for failing to meet these targets are entirely self-created. In short, the state is punishing its citizens for a problem that doesn’t exist.
The Path Forward
Vermont’s REC system, GHG reporting, and the mandates tied to these inflated numbers represent a multi-million-dollar taxpayer-funded disaster—and it’s entirely self-imposed. There is no federal requirement mandating these emissions reductions or the costly laws stemming from them. If the Legislature repealed the Global Warming Solutions Act and reformed the Renewable Energy Standard tomorrow, it would harm no one, anywhere. In fact, it would provide immediate financial relief to Vermont’s residents and businesses while helping to restore trust in the state’s policymaking.
This is a critical moment for Vermont’s leadership. Legislators must:
- Acknowledge the Mistake: Recognize that Vermont’s environmental policies are built on fraudulent numbers inflated by REC sales.
- Reform or Repeal Harmful Laws: Reevaluate the Global Warming Solutions Act and other mandates, understanding that achieving these “goals” provides no real benefit to the environment or Vermont residents.
- Focus on What Matters: Instead of chasing meaningless targets, focus on cost-effective solutions that genuinely improve Vermont’s energy infrastructure without imposing financial hardships.
By acknowledging the truth, Vermont’s legislators could start unraveling this mess and spare taxpayers from decades of unnecessary expense. In reality, if Vermont doesn’t meet its self-imposed environmental goals, nothing actually happens. (The GWSA’s right-to-sue provision notwithstanding, if it isn’t repealed.) No penalties. No global consequences. Just less unnecessary hardship for Vermonters.
Closing Thoughts
The entire multi-million-dollar GHG reduction effort in Vermont is built on a house of cards. It’s a policy quagmire where taxpayer dollars fund distorted emissions accounting, punitive mandates, and inflated narratives of environmental failure. Yet the reality is simple: Vermont’s environmental impact is already minimal, and none of these laws are federally mandated.
If Vermont repealed every one of these policies in the next legislative session, it would harm no one and help everyone. Taxpayers might even forgive the disaster by 2030 if the state acted swiftly enough. As it stands, Vermonters are paying for an illusion—both of their state’s alleged emissions problem and the pointless solutions being imposed. The sooner Vermont’s leaders face this reality, the sooner the state can move toward sensible, honest, and fair policymaking.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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