When Vermont lawmakers passed the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) in 2020, they framed it as aligning state policy with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The Paris accord, adopted in 2015 by nearly every nation on Earth, set a global objective: limit warming to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts toward 1.5°C.

What Paris did not do was mandate a single emissions target, baseline year, or enforcement mechanism. Instead, it established a voluntary, bottom-up system in which each participating country submits its own climate pledge — known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — and reports progress over time.

That distinction matters, because Vermont converted Paris’s aspirational global framework into binding state law with legal consequences.

What the Paris Agreement actually requires

The Paris Agreement remains in force internationally. Nearly every country in the world is still a party to it, including the European Union, China, and India. The United States’ participation has fluctuated: it joined under President Obama, withdrew under President Trump in 2020, rejoined under President Biden in 2021, and has again begun the withdrawal process following President Trump’s return to office in 2025.

Paris does not assign uniform emissions cuts. Countries choose their own baselines, timelines, and metrics. Some measure reductions against 1990 levels, others against 2005 or later years. Some targets are absolute; others are intensity-based, tied to GDP growth.

The enforcement mechanism is diplomatic pressure and transparency, not penalties.

In short, Paris is a process treaty designed to bring nearly all nations to the table — not a standardized emissions contract.

Vermont’s legal turn: from goals to mandates

Vermont’s Global Warming Solutions Act takes a different approach.

The law sets fixed, enforceable emissions targets:

• 26 percent below 2005 levels by January 1, 2025
• 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030
• 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050

State agencies are legally obligated to meet those targets. If they fail, the law authorizes lawsuits to compel action.

The GWSA was explicitly justified by reference to Paris-aligned climate goals. In effect, Vermont adopted the temperature objectives of an international treaty — but replaced its voluntary structure with statutory deadlines and judicial enforcement.

That move placed Vermont in a position very different from the countries Paris was designed to accommodate.

How major emitters have actually performed since Paris

Looking at emissions trends since 2015 — the year Paris was adopted — highlights the scale mismatch between global diplomacy and state-level mandates.

Among major economies:

• United States: Emissions down roughly 15 percent since 2015, driven largely by coal plant retirements and fuel switching.
• European Union: Down about 23 percent over the same period, reflecting long-running industrial and power-sector declines.
• China: Up more than 30 percent since 2015, despite rapid renewable deployment.
• India: Up roughly 45 percent, reflecting economic and population growth.

The net global result is that reductions in the U.S. and Europe have been more than offset by increases elsewhere. Paris was designed with this reality in mind: it aimed to slow, then eventually reverse, emissions growth in developing economies while wealthier countries cut faster.

Vermont, however, has no leverage over that global balance — yet its law assumes emissions reductions are a linear, controllable process within state borders.

🇺🇸 U.S. vs 🇪🇺 EU vs 🇨🇳 China vs 🇮🇳 India (2015 → 2023)

Baseline: CO₂ emissions from energy + industrial processes (Our World in Data, IEA, and Global Carbon Project).

Region	2015 Emissions (Gt CO₂)	2023 Emissions (Gt CO₂)	Change	Comment
United States	5.5	4.7	−15%	Declines mostly from coal phaseout; natural gas + transport offset gains.
European Union (27)	3.4	2.6	−23%	Deepest sustained cuts of any major bloc; industry + electricity down big.
China	9.1	11.9	+31%	Keeps rising despite massive renewables buildout; cement, steel, coal-heavy growth.
India	2.2	3.2	+45%	Still developing; power and transport growth outpacing renewables.

🧭 Interpretation:
The Paris “goal” (cutting global emissions fast enough to stay near 1.5°C) depends mostly on China and India slowing growth. The U.S. and EU are both reducing, but even combined, their progress is dwarfed by Asia’s increases.

The comparison reflects absolute emissions changes since the Paris Agreement’s adoption in 2015.

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Vermont versus its neighbors

At the regional level, Vermont’s emissions record looks less exceptional than its statutory deadlines suggest.

From 2005 to 2022:

• Vermont: Down about 20 percent
• New Hampshire: Down roughly 30 percent
• Massachusetts: Down about 27 percent
• New York: Down about 23 percent
• Connecticut: Down about 25 percent

Vermont’s reductions largely occurred before 2015 and have since flattened. Transportation and residential heating — the state’s two largest emissions sources — remain difficult to decarbonize quickly in a rural, cold-weather state with long travel distances and an aging housing stock.

Despite this, Vermont’s 2025 GWSA target requires a steeper reduction trajectory than most neighboring states have achieved over comparable periods.

🟩 Vermont vs 🟦 Neighboring States (2005 → 2022)

EPA State GHG Inventory (All-State GHG Data 1990–2022)

State	2005 Emissions (MMT CO₂e)	2022 Emissions (MMT CO₂e)	Change Since 2005	Notes
Vermont	9.7	7.7	−20%	Declines stalled post-2015; most emissions from cars + heating oil.
New Hampshire	17.3	12.1	−30%	Coal exit + hydro imports helped.
Massachusetts	81.0	59.2	−27%	Consistent cuts; aggressive clean power policies.
New York	208.0	161.0	−23%	Energy transition + reduced fuel oil.
Connecticut	46.3	34.7	−25%	Similar mix: gas over oil, mild electrification.

🧭 Interpretation:
Vermont’s emissions have declined since 2005, but at a slower rate than most neighboring states. The state’s reductions have largely plateaued since the mid-2010s, leaving Vermont short of the trajectory implied by the Global Warming Solutions Act’s 2025 target.

Unlike neighboring states with larger urban centers or power-sector shifts, Vermont’s emissions profile is dominated by transportation and residential heating, sectors that are more difficult and costly to decarbonize in a rural setting.

Where Paris ends and Vermont begins

The Paris Agreement’s core logic is collective action: the world succeeds or fails based on aggregate global emissions, not on whether any single jurisdiction hits a particular percentage by a fixed date.

Vermont’s GWSA inverts that logic. It treats climate targets as enforceable performance benchmarks for a single state, regardless of external conditions or global emissions trends.

That difference explains much of the current tension. Paris tolerates uneven progress, shifting baselines, and delayed reductions in exchange for near-universal participation. Vermont’s law does not.

Whether that approach accelerates meaningful climate outcomes or merely shifts costs within a small, low-emitting state remains an open question. What is clear is that the GWSA is not a direct requirement of the Paris Agreement, but a political and legal interpretation of its goals — one that carries consequences Paris itself was deliberately designed to avoid.

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Dave Soulia | FYIVT

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