The FBI’s most recent national crime report showed something unexpected: violent crime in the United States fell about 3% in 2023, returning to 364 incidents per 100,000 people, a number not seen since before the pandemic. Murders, often the most politically charged category, dropped by nearly 12% in just one year. On paper, it looks like progress. But the story behind those numbers tells us much more — and raises questions about where violence actually occurs, and why.
For years, headlines have painted the U.S. as an exceptionally dangerous country, especially when it comes to gun violence. But what if the average is misleading? What if most of the country isn’t experiencing a crime wave at all — and the real problem is confined to a relatively small set of cities?
That’s exactly what the data suggest.
Urban Concentration, Rural Contrast
Take Chicago. With 621 homicides in 2023 and a population of about 2.7 million, the city’s murder rate hovers around 23 per 100,000 — nearly four times the national average. Baltimore, St. Louis, Detroit, New Orleans, and a handful of others regularly post even higher numbers. And while these metro areas make up a small fraction of the U.S. population, they account for a massive share of total gun homicides.
When you isolate these urban hotspots — let’s say the 15–20 most violent cities — and remove them from the national equation, what remains is a very different picture. The rest of the country, comprising rural areas, small towns, and most suburbs, sees dramatically lower rates of both violent crime and gun deaths. Analysts estimate the “rest-of-America” firearm homicide rate lands somewhere around 2 to 3 per 100,000, compared to the national average of about 6.3. That’s less than half.
This sharp drop isn’t just statistical noise — it’s a fundamental reframing of the national conversation.
Gun Ownership Doesn’t Equal Gun Violence
Now add another layer: gun ownership. According to the Pew Research Center, about 47% of adults in rural areas personally own firearms. In urban areas, that number drops to 20%. So despite more than twice the gun ownership, rural America experiences a fraction of the gun violence.
| Community | Gun Ownership | Gun Homicide Rate (est.) |
|---|---|---|
| Rural | ~47% | ~2–3 per 100k |
| Urban | ~20% | >20 per 100k |
That dynamic — more guns, less crime — runs contrary to many popular assumptions. And it undermines broad, national-level claims that access to firearms is the main driver of violence.
Of course, this doesn’t mean rural communities are immune from tragedy, or that cities are doomed to dysfunction. But it does suggest that the root causes of gun violence go far beyond simple access to firearms. Urban areas grapple with complex combinations of poverty, gang activity, repeat offenders, weak prosecution, and in some cases, policy decisions that reduce law enforcement presence. All of these may contribute to the higher rates of violence seen in certain cities — but they’re not representative of the country as a whole.
National Averages Obscure the Real Story
And that’s the point.
Lumping together high-crime metro areas with low-crime rural states may make for easy national statistics, but it doesn’t help us understand the problem. Worse, it leads to policy debates that treat Vermont like Chicago or Montana like Baltimore — even though the lived reality is worlds apart.
This doesn’t mean national averages are useless. But they’re only a starting point. If we want to reduce gun violence meaningfully, we need to target the places where it’s actually happening, not pretend the problem is equally distributed across red states, blue states, suburbs, and farm towns. That means real local solutions: better policing, focused deterrence, stronger prosecution, and community-level programs where they’re most needed.
And it also means recognizing that most of America isn’t in crisis. The vast majority of U.S. counties report zero or single-digit homicides per year — even with high gun ownership. The data speak clearly: gun crime is real, but it’s not everywhere.
It’s concentrated. It’s localized. And it’s fixable — if we stop trying to fix the whole country the same way.
🍁 Make a One-Time Contribution — Stand Up for Accountability in Vermont 🍁
Gun Homicide Per Gun — Rural U.S. vs. Europe (Estimates)
| Region | Guns per 100 ppl | Gun Homicide Rate | People per Gun | Guns per Gun Homicide |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rural U.S. | ~60–70 | ~2–3 / 100k | ~1.4–1.6 | ~200–350 guns/homicide |
| Switzerland | ~27.6 | ~0.10–0.15 | ~3.6 | ~180–275 guns/homicide |
| Finland | ~32.4 | ~0.15–0.20 | ~3.1 | ~160–215 guns/homicide |
| France | ~19.6 | ~0.06–0.09 | ~5.1 | ~218–327 guns/homicide |
| U.S. Average | 120.5 | ~4.1–5.0 | ~0.83 | ~24–30 guns/homicide |
Measured by Responsibility, Rural America Wins
But here’s the part no one talks about: when you factor in the number of guns, rural America doesn’t just hold its own — it actually performs better than some of the most admired European nations.
Consider this: Switzerland and Finland are often praised for their high rates of gun ownership with low levels of violence. But when you look at gun homicide per gun owned, rural America is statistically more responsible. With roughly 60–70 guns per 100 people and a gun homicide rate of 2–3 per 100,000, rural U.S. counties end up with one gun homicide per 200–350 guns.
Compare that to:
- Switzerland: ~1 per 180–275 guns
- Finland: ~1 per 160–215 guns
Despite having 2–3× more guns per capita, rural Americans are less likely to commit a gun homicide with one than their European counterparts. That flips the conventional narrative on its head.
It’s not about how many guns a country has — it’s about where they are, who has them, and how they’re used. And when measured that way, the so-called “gun problem” in America is not in the hills of Vermont or the plains of Nebraska. It’s in the concentrated urban pockets where enforcement is weak, prosecution is lenient, and criminal activity is tightly woven into daily life.
So while rural America may own the most guns, it may also own the title of most responsible gun culture in the developed world.
That’s not a boast. That’s a statistical fact.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
You can find FYIVT on YouTube | X(Twitter) | Facebook | Parler (@fyivt) | Gab | Instagram
#fyivt #GunFacts #RuralReality #CrimeByTheNumbers
Support Us for as Little as $5 – Get In The Fight!!
Make a Big Impact with $25/month—Become a Premium Supporter!
Join the Top Tier of Supporters with $50/month—Become a SUPER Supporter!
Subscribe to RSS
Leave a Reply