For most of the late 20th century, homicide in Vermont ticked along at single-digit counts each year. Then—slowly at first in the 2000s and decisively in the 2020s—the line bent upward. Average annual murders roughly doubled compared with the late-20th-century baseline, and the last three complete years set modern highs. Whatever you think the causes are, the level of lethal violence in Vermont is not the same as it was.
From 1960–1999, Vermont averaged 7.6 murders a year (median 8). In the 2000–2019 stretch, that rose to 11.6 (median 11.5)—an increase of about four cases a year. Since 2020, the pace climbed again to ~17.2 per year (2020–2024 full years). That’s +128% over the 1960–1999 average and +49% over 2000–2019. The three-year run of 2022 (22), 2023 (18), 2024 (23) is the highest sustained period in the state record we compiled.
The long view shows two inflection points. First, a gradual upshift beginning around 2000, when Vermont moved from single-digits into the low teens most years. Second, a sharper step after 2019, when mid-teens became the norm. The smoothing lines (3-year and 5-year averages) confirm this isn’t just noise from one extreme year; it’s a new level.
By the numbers (decade averages)
- 1960s: 4.9 per year
- 1970s: 7.0
- 1980s: 9.1
- 1990s: 9.2
- 2000s: 12.1
- 2010s: 11.0
- 2020s (to date): 15.3 per year
A few details stand out. First, Vermont really did have very low years (there’s even a 0 in 1962). Second, spikes aren’t new—e.g., the late 1980s and mid-2000s had clusters in the low-teens—but the frequency of high years has increased lately, and the ceiling moved up: 2024’s 23 is a record in the compiled series.
What changed? The reviewed dataset doesn’t expose motives or track who’s moving across state lines; it is a count series in the Uniform Crime Reporting category “Murder & Non-Negligent Manslaughter.” It excludes negligent manslaughter and justified killings, giving a consistent measure of illegal homicides across the timeline.
Even within that definition, there are clues. Broader Crime Data Explorer (CDE) breakdowns show firearms in just over half of Vermont homicides, with handguns the single most common type. That result aligns with national patterns, but the specific Vermont weapon mix—and how it has shifted—merits its own chart. The CDE/Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) “circumstance” fields also classify cases as drug-related, argument, felony-related, and so on. Whatever the underlying mix, the totals point to a clear pattern: Vermont’s homicide level stepped upward around 2000, and again after 2019.
None of this is to say Vermont has turned into a big-city homicide market. Counts here are still small in absolute terms, which is why single events can sway the annual total. But that’s exactly why the multi-year averages are useful: they iron out one-off mass events and show you the underlying level. On that measure, the 2020s are different.
The Recent Spike
The numbers since 2022 are stark. There were 22 homicides recorded in 2022, 18 in 2023, and 23 in 2024 — the three highest back-to-back totals in decades. October 2023 alone saw eight killings, more than one a week.
Health Department data add another dimension: 38% of the 2022 victims were non-residents, compared with an average of about 11% in the prior decade. In 2023, a quarter of firearm homicide victims were from out of state.
Several recent cases underline that point. In 2025, Demetrius Drew of New Haven, Connecticut was charged in a fatal Hartford shooting; two New Hampshire residents were accused as accessories. In 2024, Jakiy Tramaine Corey Keith, 24, of Hartford, Connecticut was charged with killing Kayla Wright in Troy in a drug-trafficking dispute. And in Springfield, Paul Lachapelle Jr. of Littleton, New Hampshire was arrested for a 2022 drug-related murder.
State intelligence analysts have flagged the same trend: the Vermont Intelligence Center reported that drug-related homicides rose 450% between 2020 and 2023, with about 41% of killings in 2023 tied directly to drug activity.
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What we still don’t know (yet)
We know that out-of-state ties are part of the story — in 2022, 38% of Vermont homicide victims were non-residents, a sharp rise from the decade prior. But the full picture remains incomplete. The statewide summary counts don’t track offender residence, and the public health tallies don’t show how individual cases break down by motive, drug connection, or whether the suspect had recently moved to Vermont. Case-level files — charging documents, court records, and the FBI’s SHR reports — do contain those details, but they haven’t yet been assembled into a comprehensive statewide picture. That is the next step in clarifying how much of the current spike is “homegrown” and how much is imported. FYIVT is working on it.
Methodology (short and plain)
We stitched two official sources into a single series. For 1960–1984 we used the ICPSR UCR state data (summing agency-level act_murder — the UCR Murder & Non-Negligent Manslaughter tally — to state-year totals). For 1985–2025 we used FBI Crime Data Explorer monthly counts for Vermont, summed to years. We filled any unreported years as 0 to keep the line continuous. 2025 is year-to-date, so compare it cautiously with full years. The full dataset and code are available, and the chart in this post uses the same numbers.
Bottom line
Vermont’s homicide history isn’t a flat line with random bumps. It has two clear turns: a rise to the low-teens around 2000, and a sharper rise to the mid-teens since 2020, capped by record highs in 2022–2024. Drugs play a central role, and a significant share of recent victims — and in many cases, offenders — have been from out of state. The numbers establish the trend; the next task is clarifying the mix of causes behind it.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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