In April 2025, Senator Anne Watson published an op-ed urging Vermonters to support the Global Warming Solutions Act. The state had “five years to take meaningful steps toward reducing climate pollution,” she wrote, steps that “will ultimately save Vermonters a significant amount of money.”

What Watson didn’t mention: At the time she wrote those words, the Conservation Law Foundation was actively suing the state for failing to meet the GWSA’s requirements. The lawsuit, filed in September 2024, alleged that Vermont was already off track and that state officials were using “faulty modeling” to hide it.

The suit was dismissed in July 2025—not because Vermont was meeting its targets, but on procedural grounds. By then, the Climate Council’s own 2025 update had confirmed what CLF alleged: Vermont “almost certainly missed” its 2025 emissions target.

View the list of Global Warming Solutions Act (2020) Yes Voters Still Serving in 2025

The Documents Tell a Different Story

The 2025 Climate Action Plan Update, produced by the Vermont Climate Council, contains admissions that contradict the optimism of Watson’s op-ed.

Vermont has “the highest per capita climate pollution of any state in New England,” according to the update, which draws on Energy Action Network data. The state has “made the least progress toward Paris Climate Agreement targets of any state in the region.”

The plan states Vermont is “increasingly likely to miss” its 2030 target. The July 2025 Agency of Natural Resources report projects the state will overshoot its 2030 goal by more than 1.5 million metric tons—roughly 29% above the legally binding target.

Meanwhile, New Hampshire—which has no GWSA, no Climate Council, and did not spend $500 million on climate programs—now has lower per-capita emissions than Vermont. According to the Energy Action Network’s 2025 report, New Hampshire dropped from 15.3 metric tons per capita in 2019 to 11.5 in 2021, while Vermont fell only from 14.1 to 12.8.

Five Years of Progress

The GWSA passed in 2020. Five years later, here is where Vermont stands on key metrics identified in the Climate Action Plan:

Measure	Current	2030 Target	Progress
EVs registered	~18,000	116,500	15%
Heat pumps installed	~68,000	169,472	41%
Heat pump water heaters	~21,774	136,558	16%
Homes weatherized	~41,390	120,000	34%

After five years and more than $500 million in climate spending, Vermont has achieved between 15% and 41% of these targets. The Climate Council’s plan calls for at least $1.4 billion more to reach 100% in the next five years.

At current installation rates, that would require more than doubling—in some categories tripling—the pace of the past five years.

EAN’s Own Numbers

The Energy Action Network’s 2025 Annual Progress Report contains a calculation that illustrates the scale of the challenge.

“To meet the 2030 GWSA obligation,” the report states, “annual GHG emissions will need to be nearly 2.8 million metric tons lower in 2029 than they were estimated to be in 2024, equivalent to reducing gasoline consumption by over 300 million gallons per year.”

Vermont consumes approximately 280 million gallons of gasoline annually.

EAN’s framing means Vermont would need to eliminate emissions equivalent to more than 100% of its current gasoline consumption—in addition to reductions in heating, agriculture, and industrial sectors—to meet the 2030 target.

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What $1.4 Billion Buys

The Climate Council estimates remaining installations can be achieved for approximately $1.4 billion. Current market prices suggest otherwise.

To reach 2030 targets, Vermont needs roughly 98,500 more EVs, 101,500 more heat pumps, 115,000 more heat pump water heaters, and 78,600 more weatherized homes.

At current prices—EVs averaging $30,000 or more after incentives, heat pumps at $6,000-$12,000 installed, heat pump water heaters at $2,500-$4,000, weatherization at $8,000-$16,000 per home—total installation costs exceed $4.5 billion.

The $1.4 billion figure accounts only for program costs and incentives, not the amounts households and businesses would pay out of pocket.

An Alternative Calculation

If the state is determined to spend money on climate compliance that won’t move the global needle, it could at least do so efficiently.

Carbon credits currently trade between $6 and $26 per ton on voluntary and regional compliance markets. Vermont needs to reduce emissions by approximately 2.8 million tons annually to meet its 2030 target.

At voluntary market rates, that equates to roughly $17 million per year, or approximately $85 million through 2030. At RGGI compliance rates of $26 per ton, the cost would be approximately $73 million annually, or $365 million through 2030.

Neither figure appears in the Climate Action Plan as a compliance pathway.

The Global Context

Vermont emits approximately 8 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent annually. Global emissions exceed 50 billion metric tons per year.

Vermont represents 0.016% of global emissions.

The 2025 Climate Action Plan does not address whether Vermont’s expenditures—whether $1.4 billion, $5 billion, or any amount—would produce measurable climate impact at the global scale.

The Lawsuit That Wasn’t Mentioned

When Watson published her April 2025 op-ed describing a path to compliance that would “save Vermonters money,” the CLF lawsuit remained active. The Conservation Law Foundation had alleged the state was using flawed modeling to obscure its failure to meet targets—the same targets Watson assured voters were achievable.

The lawsuit was dismissed two months later. But the dismissal did not vindicate the state’s progress. The court ruled only that CLF’s suit was premature under the statute’s procedural requirements—not that Vermont was on track.

Days after the dismissal, the Agency of Natural Resources released its own report confirming Vermont had likely missed 2025 and would miss 2030 by 29%.

Watson’s op-ed mentioned none of this. Instead, she blamed Governor Scott for lacking “an actionable climate plan” and urged the legislature to act.

Watson chairs the Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee. Her committee has blocked S.110, which would repeal the GWSA, and S.68, which would repeal the Affordable Heat Act. Both bills remain in committee without hearings.

The Climate Council’s documents, EAN’s calculations, and the state’s own July 2025 report all point to the same conclusion: Vermont will not meet its 2030 targets under current policies, and the cost of attempting to do so far exceeds official estimates.

Watson knows the math. EAN knows the math. They’re just hoping Vermonters don’t do the math.

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Dave Soulia | FYIVT

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Global Warming Solutions Act (2020) Yes Voters Still Serving in 2025

Total: 43 legislators (1 U.S. Representative, 7 Senators, 35 State Representatives)

U.S. Congress

• Becca Balint – U.S. Representative (D) (formerly Senate, Windham District)

Vermont Senate (7)

• Philip Baruth – Chittenden-Central (D/P) – Senate President Pro Tempore
• Alison Clarkson – Windsor (D)
• Ann Cummings – Washington (D)
• Ruth Hardy – Addison (D)
• Virginia “Ginny” Lyons – Chittenden-Southeast (D)
• Andrew Perchlik – Washington (D/P)
• Richard Westman – Lamoille (R)

Vermont House of Representatives (35)

• Sarah “Sarita” Austin – Chittenden-19 (D)
• John L. Bartholomew – Windsor-1 (D)
• Matthew Birong – Addison-3 (D)
• Mollie S. Burke – Windham-8 (D)
• R. Scott Campbell – Caledonia-Essex (D)
• Kevin “Coach” Christie – Windsor-6 (D)
• Brian Cina – Chittenden-15 (P/D)
• Peter Conlon – Addison-2 (D)
• Timothy R. Corcoran II – Bennington-2 (D)
• Karen Dolan – Chittenden-22 (D)
• David Durfee – Bennington-3 (D)
• Alice M. Emmons – Windsor-3 (D)
• Robert Hooper – Chittenden-18 (D)
• Lori Houghton – Chittenden-22 (D)
• Mary E. Howard – Rutland-6 (D)
• Kathleen James – Bennington-4 (D)
• Charles Kimbell – Windsor-5 (D)
• Emilie Kornheiser – Windham-7 (D)
• Jill Krowinski – Chittenden-16 (D) – Speaker of the House
• Martin LaLonde – Chittenden-12 (D)
• Emily Long – Windham-5 (D)
• James Masland – Windsor-Orange-2 (D)
• Kristi Morris – Windsor-3 (D)
• Michael Mrowicki – Windham-4 (D)
• Daniel Noyes – Lamoille-2 (D)
• John O’Brien – Windsor-Orange-1 (D)
• Carol Ode – Chittenden-18 (D)
• Barbara Rachelson – Chittenden-14 (D)
• Robin Scheu – Addison-1 (D)
• Amy Sheldon – Addison-1 (D)
• Laura Sibilia – Windham-2 (I)
• Trevor Squirrell – Chittenden-3 (D)
• Thomas Stevens – Washington-Chittenden (D)
• Theresa Wood – Washington-Chittenden (D)
• David Yacovone – Lamoille-Washington (D)

Note: Links point to Vermont Legislature official pages (2026 session). Becca Balint links to her congressional website.
Party affiliations: D = Democrat, R = Republican, P = Progressive, I = Independent