As Vermont advances major conservation benchmarks under Act 59 while simultaneously calling for tens of thousands of new homes, an emerging question is gaining attention: how much land is actually left in the state for future development, and how do these goals intersect with the physical limits of Vermont’s landscape? A review of statewide datasets — along with the long-term behavior of land-use programs — shows that Vermont may already be working within a far smaller pool of developable acreage than commonly understood.
A Landscape Largely Accounted For
Vermont contains approximately 6.1 million acres. Within that land base, three major categories significantly restrict future development potential:
• Current Use Program (Use Value Appraisal): ~2.5 million acres
Land enrolled in Current Use is not legally conserved, but it is effectively removed from development pressure. Once enrolled, parcels rarely exit the program, and owners face substantial financial penalties for converting land to other uses. State reports indicate that year-over-year attrition from the program is extremely low.
• Permanently Conserved Land: ~1.6 million acres
This includes conservation easements, natural areas, wildlife management lands, land trust holdings, and other permanently restricted parcels.
• State and Federal Public Lands: ~800,000 acres
Lands such as state forests, state parks, wildlife management areas, and the Green Mountain National Forest are largely unavailable for residential or commercial development.
Together, those three categories account for approximately 4.9 million acres, or about 81 percent of Vermont’s total land area.
Functional Conservation vs. Legal Conservation
Act 59’s “30×30” and “50×50” goals focus on legally conserved acreage. Under this definition, Current Use land does not automatically count toward the state’s conservation totals.
However, from a land-availability standpoint, Current Use behaves similarly to conservation:
- parcels are rarely withdrawn,
- penalties discourage development,
- most landowners maintain the status quo for decades.
As a result, Vermont’s operational conservation footprint — land that is unlikely to be developed in any foreseeable timeframe — already approaches the proportions envisioned under the 50 percent benchmark, even though not all of it meets the statutory definition.
Physical Constraints on the Remaining Quarter
The remaining ~20 percent of Vermont’s land is not automatically suitable for housing or infrastructure. State and regional planning analyses consistently note that 30–40 percent of unconstrained land is physically unsuitable for development due to steep slopes, wetlands, floodplains, ledge, or soils unable to support wastewater systems.
Applying a conservative 35 percent physical reduction to the unconserved remainder leaves roughly 300,000 to 350,000 acres statewide with basic physical potential for development.
But much of that acreage is already occupied by:
- existing residential neighborhoods
- village centers and downtowns
- commercial and industrial zones
- transportation corridors
- scattered rural homes and driveways
Once developed land is subtracted, Vermont is left with an estimated 60,000 to 80,000 acres of contiguous, realistically developable land.
Housing Targets and Land Capacity
The most recent statewide housing needs assessment estimates Vermont must build 28,000 to 40,000 new homes by 2030 to stabilize vacancy rates, address homelessness, and meet workforce needs.
Even modest-density residential development requires land for:
- roads and rights-of-way
- wastewater systems
- stormwater management
- emergency access
- zoning setbacks
- water supply infrastructure
Planning models indicate that accommodating 40,000 new units would require 80,000 to 120,000 acres of buildable land — a figure that exceeds the total amount of contiguous land that remains realistically suitable for development in the state.
This mismatch reveals a structural tension: the land base required to meet housing goals is larger than the land base Vermont has available.
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Conservation Goals and Housing Needs on a Constrained Landscape
Act 59’s conservation benchmarks assume additional land will be removed from developmental availability in future decades. Meanwhile, the state’s housing projections assume significant new construction across multiple counties.
When combined with the long-term stability of Current Use enrollment, the two goals intersect on a very narrow portion of Vermont’s geography. Adding more conserved land reduces the buildable fraction even further, leaving housing production increasingly dependent on small pockets of developable acreage.
This presents municipalities and planners with a narrowing set of options. Without significant changes to land-use patterns, Vermont’s growth capacity rests almost entirely within:
- village centers
- walkable districts
- areas served by municipal water and wastewater
- multi-family and higher-density zoning allowances
These patterns align with emerging statewide initiatives promoting compact “15-minute cities” (Act 47 – 2023)— neighborhoods where residents can reach essential services by foot within a short distance. For some regions, this represents an adaptation to geographic limits; for others, it marks a departure from traditional low-density settlement patterns.
Implications for Housing Affordability and Land Prices
Land scarcity plays a central role in Vermont’s rising housing costs. With most of the state’s acreage already committed to conservation, public ownership, or long-term Current Use enrollment, the remaining land available for new development is limited. This scarcity restricts how much new housing can be built, even in areas experiencing population stability rather than rapid growth.
Because supply cannot expand meaningfully, competition concentrates on a narrow share of properties. This contributes to rising land values, higher home prices, and increasing rents across much of the state. Municipalities also report that expanding housing within existing built areas often faces infrastructure limits — including water, wastewater, and road capacity — which further constrains supply.
These pressures extend to the commercial sector as well. Commercial properties, which traditionally provide a strong portion of the municipal tax base, rely on the same limited pool of developable land. As undeveloped acreage diminishes, opportunities for commercial growth narrow, leaving towns more reliant on residential properties that generally contribute less revenue than they require in services.
In this context, land scarcity is not an abstract planning concern but a direct factor shaping Vermont’s housing market and tax structure.
Conclusion: A Finite Landscape With Expanding Demands
Taken together, Vermont’s land-use patterns reveal a structural constraint: the state has very little developable land remaining. With roughly three-quarters of the landbase functionally removed from development — through conservation, public ownership, or long-term Current Use participation — and much of the remainder limited by topography or existing settlement, the pool of land available for future growth is small and shrinking.
At the same time, statewide housing assessments call for tens of thousands of new homes by 2030, while Act 59 outlines conservation goals that would further expand protected acreage. These objectives draw from the same limited geographic space. As housing and conservation policies evolve, the central question becomes one of physical capacity: how much development can Vermont accommodate within the land that remains?
For planners, legislators, and municipalities, this question will shape decisions about density, redevelopment, village expansion, and the long-term balance between conservation and community growth. Vermont’s future development path may depend not only on policy priorities, but on the practical limits of the landscape itself.
Dave Soulia | FYIVT
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